Twenty Bold Predictions on the 2011 Oscars*

1) The Artist will shock absolutely no one by winning Best Picture. It’s a silent movie and there are a lot of old heads in the Academy who will feel really good about themselves by carrying it to a Best Picture Oscar.
2) There will be a shocker in the Best Actor category. George Clooney already has an Oscar and people will not want to vote for the French guy who didn’t do any talking (Jean Dujardin). The vote will be split between Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Brad Pitt for Moneyball. This leaves the winner as Demian Bichir, star of the little-seen Bicycle Thieves rip-off A Better Life.

Ten Quick Thoughts on...Blue Valentine

1) I really should have realized this flick wasn't coming anywhere near a happy ending when it basically began with a dog escaping from its pen, only to be found laying on the side of the road dead from an apparent car collison. As metaphors for a failed marriage go, that was kind of clear.

2) Michelle Williams is quickly putting the whole Dawson's Creek aspect of her career in the rear view. She has deftly avoided the curse that has struck the rest of her castmates on that show (I will cop to having never bore witness to one scene). As a woman stuck in an unfulfilling marriage to an alcoholic lacking in ambition (is there any other kind of alcoholic?), she is splendid. Still, one gets the idea that she could probably be game for a comedy at this point of her career. Think of her most memorable roles: Ryan Gosling's put-upon wife in this one, Heath Ledger's put-upon wife in Brokeback Mountain, Leonardo DiCaprio's dead wife in Shutter Island. I guess it is better to be put-upon than dead? In any event, she plays Marilyn Monroe in a movie coming out soon. Marilyn Monroe. That can't end well.